The FT quotes (limited paywall) environmental group Transport & Environment that they expect EV sales in the EU to pass 1m next year, from 250,000 in 2018 and 200,00 in 1H 2019.

This is an aggressive forecast. I don’t have the same historical numbers as they do, even excluding Norway and Switzerland from my data. Perhaps this is because the article says they include PHEVs only with a “significant range”, though I’d have thought that was to exclude mild-hybrids. But in any case my rule-of-thumb of 40% annual gains, similar to the YTD position, would imply (on their numbers) 350k this year, and just under 500k next. Much less than 1m.

Clearly the launch of new models such as the VW ID3 will make a big difference, but my understanding is that won’t be available in large numbers until later in the year. I’ll try to find out more information on their assumptions.

ps Here’s their press release and there seems to be a report. On a quick glance it looks like it might be a “look this is possible” target rather than an expection.