I wrote two weeks ago (“No evidence of substitution away from palladium. Indeed, evidence of no substitution“) that a natural experiment – North Macedonia trade data – could tell us whether high-priced palladium was being replaced by cheaper platinum in diesel autocatalysts.

Answer: it wasn’t and that was a good reason to think the price of palladium could go higher. And indeed it has gone higher, now nearing $1,800/oz.

We now have North Macedonia trade data for August. Does this show any shift towards platinum? Nope. Palladium was 44% of the palladium & platinum imported, higher than the YTD average of 36%. This reinforces the point that 2019 is on course to see palladium’s share rise not fall.